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Alarm i Østersøen: Et bidrag til forståelsen af en sømilitær konflikt ved Danmarks østlige flanke

Studenteropgave: Diplomprojekt

  • Mads Mikkelsen
  • Jacob Wegener
Afgangsprojekt, Den militære diplomuddannelse (Diplomuddannelse)
In recent years, the US has shown political unpredictability. This places their allies, including Denmark, in a position where they must re-evaluate the United States’ commitment to the NATO charter’s article 5. This, in turn, raises the issue of the Baltic states’ ability to defend themselves in the event of an aggression from their main local threat, Russia. With the maritime domain at the centre of this issue in this thesis, we investigate the following problem: How can Denmark, with allies in the Baltic Region, counter Russia’s maritime military power, in a scenario where the United States does not support NATO?

In conjunction with overarching strategic analysis of the parties in the region, we utilize Geoffrey Till’s model of “fighting power” to examine the states’ navies on the imbedded parameters, using open sources, in order to establish scenarios and simulations that are as relevant as possible. These simulations, which are conducted in “Command Modern Operations”, are analysed and discussed within the framework of the ten principles of war. The results show that a coalition of the Scandinavian countries, while able to provide deterrence, is inadequate when faced with the Russian Baltic Fleet, while the larger coalition, encompassing
all the countries that border the Baltic Sea, is more than adequate in this regard. Finally, on the basis on our results, we recommend a renewed approach to dealing with tactical and operational problems, by including simulation software in order to attain a clearer picture of force comparisons and tactical opportunities.
Udgivelsesdato18 feb. 2020
Antal sider60
Udgivende institutionInstitut for Militære Operationer
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