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Militær risikostyring i gidselfrigørelsesoperationer: Et casestudie af gidselsagen om Leopards besætning

Studenteropgave: Diplomprojekt

  • Morten Larsen
Afgangsprojekt, Den militære diplomuddannelse (Diplomuddannelse)
This is the final thesis at the Royal Danish Naval Academy. It investigates Danish military risk management in hostage release operations, using a case study of the hostage taking of six sailors by Somali pirates in 2011-2013.

A theoretical exposition of military risk management as described in relevant planning doctrines, is used as an analytical model composed of the strategic levels of war, types of risk described in the context of special operations forces, and an internationally recognised method of risk management. This analytical model is used as a structure for the text analysis case study of the hostage taking. Analytical focus is placed upon the circumstances of the hostages, the negotiations for a release, and their military implications for a potential hostage release operation.

The investigation is done by risk analysis for the strategic, operational, and tactical levels of war, and includes risk analysis of the political stance in negotiations, political goodwill towards special operations forces, deployment of military forces to Somali territory, intelligence gathering, localisation and transport of the hostages, and possible pirate reinforcements during a confrontation. Possible mitigation criteria for a hostage release operation is discussed emphasising a maritime operation, and a model is proposed for a general understanding of military risk management across the strategic levels of war compared to levels of physical risk.

The thesis concludes with a potential hostage release operation being considered as a complicated and risky alternative to a negotiations-based solution. This is primarily due to the poor risk mitigation of intelligence gathering and a lack of logistic capacities. Proposals are presented to enable a military contribution to the solution of a future Danish hostage situation.
SprogDansk
Udgivelsesdato18 feb. 2020
Antal sider44
Udgivende institutionInstitut for Militærhistorie, -kulturforståelse og Krigsteori
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