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Engelsk

Ruslands intervention i Syrien: Et skridt på vejen til anerkendt stormagtsstatus

Studenteropgave: Master speciale

  • Lasse Elsborg
Afgangsprojekt, Master i Militære Studier (Masteruddannelse)
Since the Syrian uprising in 2011, Russia, despite massive pressure from the West, has provided political and military support to Bashar al-Assad in order to keep him in power.
This thesis examines the key factors behind Russia’s intervention in Syria and the part they play in Russia’s strategic aims to become an internationally recognized great power. Utilizing Mearsheimer’s and Gilpin’s offensive realist theory, the thesis sets out to explore how Russian intervention has affected Russia’s military and economic power, its ability to influence rights and rules in the international system and to achieve prestige and recognition.
The thesis concludes that the military campaign provides Russia with geopolitical benefits, in as much as the development and establishment of bases in Syria serve as a stepping-stone for power projection in the wider region and the balancing of NATO and US. The intervention has provided Russia with the opportunity to train and develop its military capabilities, thus enhancing technological developments and interoperability. The use of modern weapon systems has increased arms sales in the region, created the opportunity for future alliance formation, and increased cooperation. Moreover, intervention has enabled Russia to obtain lucrative agreements on oil and gas infrastructure in Syria, a strategic hub for distribution from the Middle East to Europe. Russia can thus maintain its position as the primary supplier of gas to Europe and so maintain influence.
Russia's use of its veto in the UN Security Council has protected Russian interests in the region and undermined application of the responsibility to protect (R2P) principle, to which Russia is in opposition. In the long term, however, this may result in a decline of Russian influence as misuse of the veto can lead to changes in international law and erode Russia´s privileges within the UN Security Council.
Finally, the thesis shows that Russia, by intervening, has increased its prestige and recognition through the successful demonstration and application of military power, including, not least, its nuclear preparedness. This has led to increased collaboration and influence in the international system. On balance, Russia has strengthened its chances of becoming a recognized great power.
SprogDansk
Udgivelsesdato25 jan. 2019
Antal sider56
Udgivende institutionForsvarsakademiet

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