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Sikkerhedsdilemmaet i Østersøområdet

Studenteropgave: Diplomprojekt

  • Mathias Simonsen Jakobsen
Afgangsprojekt, Den militære diplomuddannelse (Diplomuddannelse)
This thesis seeks to examine the relationship between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Russian Federation in the Baltic Sea Region in order to determine if there is an active security dilemma between the two actors. Further, the thesis discusses the future consequences of the identified situation between NATO and Russia. Through a realist approach to international politics, this qualitative research is based on John Herz and Robert Jervis theory of the security dilemma. The thesis identifies three major indicators of a security dilemma from Herz´ theory, those being fear and uncertainty, misunderstandings and a vicious circle of security. Further, the thesis identifies the major variables of Jervis´ theory as the offense-defense balance and the distinction between offensive and defensive capabilities. Through an analysis of these indicators and variables the investigation concludes that there is an active security dilemma between NATO and Russia.

Based on Robert Jervis four worlds in his theory of cooperation under the security dilemma and with the further application of game theory, this thesis suggests a model for graduation of the security dilemma in three levels. The thesis concludes that the situation between NATO and Russia fits level three of the suggested model, the most unstable level of the security dilemma.

The theory finds two probable scenarios for the consequences of the situation. In the first scenario the situation continues in the vicious circle of security with an arms race as a result. The other scenario suggests a build-up of defensive NATO capabilities in the Baltic Region in order to counter the imbalance of conventional forces in the Baltic region compared to the Russian Western Military District. This could lead to a status quo situation in the Baltic Region, carving the path for renewed cooperation between NATO and Russia.
Udgivelsesdato8 nov. 2018
Antal sider48
Udgivende institutionHærens Officersskole
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